• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1113

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 20:27:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262027
    SPC MCD 262027=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1113
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...West-central Texas and far eastern New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262027Z - 262230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving east/southeast out of New Mexico will
    pose a severe wind threat through the late afternoon and evening
    hours. Additionally, strong to severe storms will likely develop
    across west/southwest Texas and move northeast through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the terrain of the
    southern Rockies across eastern NM within a modest upslope flow
    regime. Although the environment the storms are currently in is
    marginal, they will encounter deeper boundary-layer moisture/better
    buoyancy and stronger effective bulk shear as they move east off the
    terrain later this afternoon/evening. With low-level lapse rates
    near 7-9 C/km in place across the plains of east NM and west TX,
    convective downdrafts will be capable of damaging wind gusts. Trends
    will be monitored for the need for a watch for eastern NM and far
    west TX.

    To the south and east, convective initiation is expected late this
    afternoon in the vicinity of a surface low near the Midland, TX
    region and/or along a surface trough axis that extends to the
    northeast of the low (or potentially along one of several weak
    surface boundaries noted in this region). As temperatures warm into
    the upper 80s and low 90s, MLCIN continues to erode with a
    corresponding increase in instability. A gradient in MLCAPE is noted
    roughly from west-central TX northeastward to the Wichita Falls, TX
    region - generally along a surface trough axis that delineates
    cooler continental to the north and a more tropical air mass to the
    south. Deep-layer flow is also oriented along this axis, so any
    convection that develops within this zone will likely propagate to
    the northeast. 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear will be
    sufficient to support organized severe storms with an attendant
    hail/wind risk. Although timing of initiation is somewhat uncertain,
    a watch will likely be needed later this afternoon/evening to
    address this potential.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!prsOVBR_slgVHzgC0dbD_MzpJyVBgC97_tTIgh0Vk6lxUZaEy-kPFM2HAqpOwsb4YeLmxaOE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31860265 32000362 32670379 33870368 35060372 35270298
    34150168 34789974 34349913 33579990 33040058 32670120
    32140193 31860265=20

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