• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1112

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 19:47:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261947
    SPC MCD 261947=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1112
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Lower
    Michigan...northwestern Indiana...central Illinois...into east
    central Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 321...

    Valid 261947Z - 262145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 321 continues.

    SUMMARY...More substantive thunderstorm intensification is ongoing
    and likely to continue through late afternoon. Stronger storms will
    continue to pose a risk for tornadoes, with organizing clusters also
    posing a risk for damaging downbursts. Areas east and southwest of
    Tornado Watch 321 are being monitored for the possibility of
    additional watches.

    DISCUSSION...A remnant convectively generated surface
    boundary/deformation zone between a pair of MCV remains the primary
    focus for deepening convective development and scattered vigorous
    embedded thunderstorm activity. Boundary layer dewpoints are
    increasing through the lower 70s F across interior southern Lower
    Michigan, and remain in the mid 70s F southwest of Chicago into the
    St. Louis area along this zone, where low-level hodographs also
    remain sizable beneath a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet.=20
    The primary jet core now appears to be nosing into southern Lower
    Michigan, but a secondary core appears to be currently migrating across/northeast of the St. Louis area.

    Despite weak lapse rates, the high boundary-layer moisture content
    appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.=20
    Coupled with the strong low-level vertical shear, the environment
    appears to be coming increasingly conducive to strengthening
    low-level mesocyclones within the stronger storms through late
    afternoon. These may occasionally pose a risk for tornadoes and/or
    strong downbursts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r9dnkV7w87InzUM6L1-YyjAOYaw9aHzlLsDx5mYtBTK1JgxncAc0h0bU4B2n6UN__JYVnvRg$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38819100 40059007 40948873 41378791 41568732 41818658
    41978593 42848501 43268326 42138398 41268580 40588753
    39648943 38529041 38819100=20

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