• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1111

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 17:59:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261759
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261759=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-262000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1111
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261759Z - 262000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is possible in the next few hours
    across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Storms may pose a
    hail/wind risk, and a watch is possible in the coming hours to
    address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery reveals a field of increasing
    strato-cumulus across northwest TX into southwest OK. This field is
    primarily oriented along a surface trough/residual outflow boundary
    and some signs of vertical deepening have been noted in the past
    hour. Regional water-vapor imagery suggests a mid-level impulse is
    approaching the region from the west/southwest that is aiding in
    lift along the boundary. This feature may be the impetus for
    convective initiation early this afternoon as weak synoptic lift and
    daytime heating drive increasing instability and erode lingering
    inhibition. Recent hi-res guidance supports this idea, suggesting
    that storms may initiate in this region by 19-20Z.=20

    Initially discrete storms along the boundary will likely pose a
    hail/wind risk thanks to sufficient instability (around 1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE per mesoanalysis estimates) and deep layer shear (35-40 knots
    of 0-6 km shear noted in KTLX VWP observations). Low-level shear may
    be enhanced along and north of a northward retreating outflow boundary/effective warm front where near-surface winds are backed.
    This could support a window for more organized discrete convection
    over southern/southwest OK before storm clustering and gradual
    upscale growth occurs. The severe threat further northeast across
    central OK is somewhat uncertain due to the more stable cold-pool
    air mass in place (though destabilization is possible given
    sufficiently limited cloud cover). Nonetheless, a watch is possible
    to address the initial wind/hail concern.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5kh0YBKb7Xt5dR6YRta0os4e-6IGhNCcUYLzo-Uhoj5of6AoD1_AlPWh_rlj2zvDpMdJGbS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33620175 34430075 34839994 35239921 35599832 35649755
    35609722 35219687 34709692 33769832 33199915 32720003
    32630091 32980151 33300171 33620175=20



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