• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1110

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 17:48:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261748=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-261845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of western through central lower Michigan

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 321...

    Valid 261748Z - 261845Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 321 continues.

    SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms posing a risk for isolated
    tornadoes and damaging downbursts are possible across interior
    central and southern Lower Michigan by 4-5 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Slowly strengthening and upscale growing thunderstorm
    activity has organized into a line across southern lower Michigan.=20
    This will likely continue advecting within 30-40+ kt southwesterly
    deep-layer mean ambient flow across the Lake Michigan shoreline
    through much of southwestern and central Lower Michigan by 20-21Z.

    This appears supported by large-scale forcing for ascent to the east
    of a lower/mid-level low centered over Iowa, perhaps aided by a
    remnant MCV now crossing southeastern Wisconsin, and coincides with strengthening low-level and deep-layer vertical shear. This
    includes a northeastward migrating south-southwesterly 850 mb jet,
    which may continue to strengthen to 40-50 kt as it propagates across
    southern Lower Michigan by late afternoon.

    Due to generally modest to weak lapse rates, boundary-layer CAPE is
    still weak, but will continue to gradually increase with additional
    insolation. This is expected to be sufficient to support=20
    substantive further intensification of the approaching line as it
    moves onshore and inland. Isolated discrete storm development may
    also occur ahead of the line, in an environment becoming
    increasingly conducive to strengthening low-level mesocyclones
    posing a risk for strong downbursts and perhaps a couple of
    tornadoes.

    ..Kerr.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rUiB5_63jN08IjGc5fdhNLH95I8otgbMNynZ_yLGGlpXcYunO3W03r_oL8DDEx7W9J7x7EZS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 43398578 43968488 43838358 43208381 42158477 41648567
    41508669 41818720 42418680 43398578=20



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