• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1109

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 16:45:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261645
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261645=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1109
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri through
    central/northeastern Illinois and adjacent northwestern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261645Z - 261845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely will continue to increase
    through 1-3 PM CDT, posing at least some risk for isolated tornadoes
    and damaging downbursts.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing along a
    narrow corridor of destabilization largely driven by daytime
    heating. This is occurring near a remnant convectively generated
    surface boundary, along which low-level convergence is focused and
    maintaining mid 70s F surface dew points, from the Greater St. Louis
    metro area north-northeastward into the Greater Chicago area. This
    is also along the southeastern periphery of a lower/mid tropospheric
    cyclone centered over Iowa, with a remnant MCV also migrating
    northeast of the Springfield, MO area, toward St. Louis.

    Lapse rates are generally weak, but the low-level moisture appears
    to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, which
    could increase to 1500-2000 J/kg with continuing insolation.=20
    Furthermore, the axis of destabilization is aligned with a
    south-southwesterly 850 mb jet migrating across the middle
    Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes region.

    Moderate to strong low-level shear will support rotation in
    developing updrafts, some of which may occasionally strengthen and
    pose a risk for at least brief tornadoes. Otherwise, consolidating/
    upscale growing storm clusters are also possible and may be
    accompanied by a risk for damaging downbursts.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sAHmec410038rPHxfS88evWVKLypegfiBay7Tt_hbuSjxLX8_lCLUV0PkInGG317De17EC4Z$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39299087 40229010 41468835 41748733 41088693 39378923
    38439013 38339081 38649123 39299087=20



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