• Pac-NW: STS Champi R19

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 10:02:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 2105 CHAMPI (2105)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS CHAMPI IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
    IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
    OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
    SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
    ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
    IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
    TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
    CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
    SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
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