• Pacific-EN: Enrique D5

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 09:53:00 2021
    WTPZ45 KNHC 260855
    TCDEP5

    Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better
    organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central
    dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops
    colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite
    intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt
    from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS
    ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on
    the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify,
    cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear
    is occurring.

    The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the
    storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should
    cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h.
    After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing
    the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The
    track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last
    advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show
    a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the
    coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to
    the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various
    consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track
    to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of
    the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

    Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical
    wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next
    24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening
    is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the
    SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
    of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity
    guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
    temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady
    weakening.


    Key Messages:

    1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
    across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
    which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
    mudslides.

    2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
    southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
    Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

    3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
    southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
    12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
    24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
    36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
    48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
    60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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