Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318...
Valid 260436Z - 260600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318
SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind remain possible with thunderstorms into
the early-morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Strong convection has struggled to spread appreciably
east across ww318 before gradually weakening. This is possibly due
to some remaining inhibition across central OK. Thunderstorms have
repeatedly developed upstream where lapse rates are steepest across
the High Plains. Recently, convection has tended to focus
along/behind the cold front as it drops south across the Panhandle.
These trends may continue for some time as greater reservoir of
buoyancy currently extends from the TX South Plains into extreme
southwestern OK. With southerly 1km AGL flow into this activity, new
updrafts remain likely across the southern TX Panhandle. With time
the front should sag into western OK and this elongated corridor of
convection should progress across much of the western portions of
ww318, but not before the watch expires.
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