• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1103

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 01:34:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260134
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260134=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1103
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0834 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Missouri into central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...

    Valid 260134Z - 260300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across the watch through the
    evening. The most likely area for severe will be across portions of
    Illinois where a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm winds and
    a couple brief tornadoes will persist for another few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across much of the watch this
    evening, with several distinct regimes in play.

    Across Missouri, outflow dominant thunderstorms continue to slowly
    move south as part of the broader southward progression of an MCS
    stretching from Kansas into Missouri. Although these thunderstorms
    remain in an very unstable atmosphere, they are moving farther away
    from the better deep-layer shear. Thus, the overall severe potential
    should remain fairly low, with gusty winds being the main severe
    threat. Portions of the severe thunderstorm watch here may
    eventually be canceled early.

    Across west-central Illinois, a small, linear cluster as developed
    associated with the leading edge of the original east/northeastward
    expansion of the afternoon Kansas MCS. These thunderstorms remain in
    a belt of deep-layer shear around 30-40 knots and most-unstable CAPE
    in excess of 2000 J/kg. These thunderstorms will continue along the northwestern edge of the instability axis for the next few hours,
    posing a continued risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorm winds.

    Farther east, across east-central Illinois, more isolated, discrete
    convection has developed along remnant convergent/outflow boundaries
    across the area. Although the instability is much less here than
    farther southwest, augmented low-level vorticity associated with the aforementioned boundaries will support a continued threat for brief
    tornadoes with any strong updraft that can tap into these vorticity
    reservoirs. This threat should diminish quickly as the nocturnal
    boundary layer develops and deepens with the loss of diurnal
    heating.

    ..Marsh.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tlnGCrcqb6kuSp24IK4EU6ZgUefxU1oZZjNyc4ntCyoi64IQqcCu0iazfBexcyLFoSuQ69tM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37489362 37849363 37809317 37899306 38729301 38689263
    39289232 40329229 40299042 40729042 40688999 40948989
    40938887 41148878 41108820 41018819 41008748 39488753
    39498798 39368803 39398845 39188849 39238927 39028921
    39008964 38658962 38649012 38419028 38479071 38189075
    38199103 37759110 37709125 37789128 37799176 37609178
    37589226 37489227 37479304 37489362=20



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