• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1097

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 21:48:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252148
    SPC MCD 252148=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1097
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Michigan and western Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 252148Z - 252315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this evening. The potential for
    a couple of tornadoes and gusty thunderstom winds will exist with
    the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is currently may become
    necessary as coverage and intensity of thunderstorms increases. The
    area will continued to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A remnant MCV across central Michigan should continue
    to weaken this evening as it moves northeast into Canada overnight.
    Before this occurs, thunderstorms are expected to evolve out of the precipitation shield across southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.
    This will occur as an increase in low-level theta-e results in an
    increase in most-unstable CAPE values potentially up to 1000 J/kg.
    Lower tropospheric flow across the area has responded to the MCV,
    resulting in south to southeast surface winds across the region
    beneath modest westerly flow in the mid-levels. The result is
    deep-layer shear around 40-knots. The combination of increasing
    instability and deep-layer shear will pose at least the potential
    for organized severe threat this evening. Given veering-with-height
    wind profiles in the low-levels and a very moist thermodynamic
    profile, a couple of tornadoes and the potential for wet microbursts
    would be possible with the strongest, most organized thunderstorms.
    Weak lapse-rates throughout the troposphere will limit the hail

    At present the relatively small spatiotemporal nature of the severe
    threat should preclude the need for a watch. However, trends will be
    monitored closely and a watch may be needed if confidence in
    coverage and intensity of thunderstorm development increases.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q4iwwPrsTG1C4fqk3aFcUIzOEbXihh4w_zpHF-hc4_UcJ6x2jfcn5N-1gWhSnAYzPglfJhH3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41318499 42078489 42858388 42958298 42658248 41898228
    40948229 40178291 40248390 40688469 41318499=20

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