Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
Areas affected...southeast Michigan and western Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 252148Z - 252315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this evening. The potential for
a couple of tornadoes and gusty thunderstom winds will exist with
the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is currently may become
necessary as coverage and intensity of thunderstorms increases. The
area will continued to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A remnant MCV across central Michigan should continue
to weaken this evening as it moves northeast into Canada overnight.
Before this occurs, thunderstorms are expected to evolve out of the precipitation shield across southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.
This will occur as an increase in low-level theta-e results in an
increase in most-unstable CAPE values potentially up to 1000 J/kg.
Lower tropospheric flow across the area has responded to the MCV,
resulting in south to southeast surface winds across the region
beneath modest westerly flow in the mid-levels. The result is
deep-layer shear around 40-knots. The combination of increasing
instability and deep-layer shear will pose at least the potential
for organized severe threat this evening. Given veering-with-height
wind profiles in the low-levels and a very moist thermodynamic
profile, a couple of tornadoes and the potential for wet microbursts
would be possible with the strongest, most organized thunderstorms.
Weak lapse-rates throughout the troposphere will limit the hail
At present the relatively small spatiotemporal nature of the severe
threat should preclude the need for a watch. However, trends will be
monitored closely and a watch may be needed if confidence in
coverage and intensity of thunderstorm development increases.
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