• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1095

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 20:14:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252013=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1095
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0313 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central Kansas into west central
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...

    Valid 252013Z - 252215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to intensify and
    consolidate near or south through southeast of the Kansas City area
    between now and 6-7 PM CDT, accompanied by increasing potential for
    strong surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development remains mostly discrete in
    nature, but increasing in number, focused within/just to the warm
    side of the zone of stronger differential associated with a remnant
    outflow boundary. This currently extends just east of Hutchinson
    into the vicinity of an outflow boundary intersection, south of the
    Kansas City area, where it appears that convection may begin to more substantively merge/consolidate through 22-00Z. Aided by inflow of
    very moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of
    3000 J/kg, considerable further convective intensification and
    upscale growth appears probable.=20=20

    Although mid-level flow may have weakened some during the past few
    hours, vertical shear may be sufficient to contribute to
    organization. Regardless, given the magnitude of CAPE, latent
    heating in lower/mid-levels could still contribute to the evolution
    of a mesovortex, strengthening rear inflow and increasing potential
    for strong surface gusts near/south through southeast of the Kansas
    City area by early evening. There may be a tendency for strongest
    activity to begin to propagate southeastward along a remnant outflow
    boundary toward areas near/northwest of the Lake of the Ozark
    vicinity thereafter.

    ..Kerr.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s9uKotYeHJ6dUN_Aap0cBmJdvC1bGGOxsAWRwpmPop-bs0EYH2WWz_ah78LBNkcqsjBKenNO$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39179376 38559249 38009265 37749392 37999496 37879592
    38299704 39219534 39179376=20



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