• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1094

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 19:11:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251911
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251911=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-252115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1094
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into eastern
    Colorado and western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 251911Z - 252115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
    develop through the afternoon hours. Storms will gradually intensify
    as they move east into better instability, and will pose a severe
    hail/wind threat. A watch is likely to address this concern.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends from the
    central/southern High Plains show isolated/scattered thunderstorms
    ongoing across southern to southeast CO. These high-based storms
    reside in an environment with deep, dry boundary layers, limited
    instability, and only marginal effective bulk shear. However, they
    will encounter deeper boundary-layer moisture and increasing
    instability as they shift east. Deeper parcel trajectories will also
    allow for strengthening effective bulk shear, boosting the overall
    potential for organized severe convection with eastward extent into
    the OK/TX Panhandles and far eastern CO/western KS.=20

    Additionally, 1-min GOES imagery reveals several areas of agitated
    cumulus across east-central CO, near Dodge City, KS, and in the
    central TX Panhandle. These cumulus fields are largely associated
    with various outflow boundaries and/or lee trough axes, which may
    act as preferential zones for additional convective initiation
    through the late afternoon hours as MLCIN continues to wane.
    Continued lee troughing and strengthening confluence along the
    boundaries over the region will further augment the potential for
    initiation later today. With nearly straight hodographs forecast
    across the region, initially discrete to semi-discrete storms are
    expected with an attendant severe hail/wind threat. A watch is
    likely in the coming hour.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vlOj8xDlXRBdA10LgeqDMADS7Ed_9Z_JZ7gjF1ARernFyWKmnB_gJqwlOz1zkww5VkqYwKSa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35590305 36520353 37000360 38010375 38860360 39570300
    39720177 39220028 38709969 37979942 36839949 35769996
    35270006 34610077 34390220 34610284 35590305=20



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