• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1093

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 18:22:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251822
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251821=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1093
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251821Z - 252015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should gradually
    increase through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. A
    watch may be needed to address the severe hail and wind potential.

    DISCUSSION...Weak convective showers continue to linger in the
    vicinity of an MCV across southwest NE. While occasional lightning
    strikes have been noted with this activity, overall trends have
    shown little intensification over the past hour. Temperatures across
    southern NE continue to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, which
    is slowly eroding remaining MLCIN and increasing instability to near
    1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per recent mesoanalysis and hinted at by
    diminishing low-level stratus). Upstream convection across far
    northern CO has been intensifying over the past 30-60 minutes,
    suggesting that stronger forcing for ascent may be approaching the
    region. Additionally, a few deepening convective towers are noted in
    GOES 1-min imagery along the effective warm front ahead of the MCV.
    These trends support the idea that a gradual increase in convective
    intensity is likely in the coming hours. While the number of
    convective showers/towers suggest coverage will increase as well,
    recent hi-res guidance hints that coverage may be limited to only
    isolated cells.=20

    Elongated hodographs featuring 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear
    and a nearly unidirectional wind profile - especially north of an
    effective warm front where easterly winds are noted - will support
    organized convection with splitting supercells initially possible.
    Given sufficient coverage, storm interactions may favor upscale
    growth and an increasing wind threat as storms move east/northeast
    along the effective warm front/instability gradient. One or two
    bowing segments are possible, but confidence is somewhat low given uncertainties in storm coverage. Conditions will continue to be
    monitored, and a watch may be needed in the coming hours to address
    the hail and damaging wind potential.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sYJ664lrl5PQQsCRU4Vqb1N6VXPnaWw25GQ_6nRzrX6Y2wQHZD4isF0WXKRYRgzNTpLFviCX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39340231 40110257 40920222 41340134 41620012 41619871
    41669739 41489686 40729667 40029680 39939753 39589888
    39310011 39170102 39340231=20



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