• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1092

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 18:00:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251800=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-252000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1092
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...Western to central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251800Z - 252000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage along an effective
    warm front through mid-afternoon. A few storms may be strong to
    severe and pose a brief hail and damaging wind threat. A watch is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows convective towers attempting
    to deepen along an effective warm frontal boundary across IA. While
    most towers have shown only transient intensification, more robust
    convective initiation appears underway across western IA. As
    destabilization continues through the early afternoon hours
    sustained convection will become more likely along the front. A
    pocket of richer boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s
    is supporting MLCAPE values near 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal
    inhibition. Despite favorable instability, deep-layer flow is
    somewhat weak with only 15-25 knots of effective bulk shear over the
    region (per recent mesoanalysis estimates). Mean flow over the
    region is also oriented largely along the boundary, suggesting that
    clusters with numerous storm interactions are likely. As such, the
    potential for robust and long-lived severe thunderstorms appears low
    and precludes the need for a watch. That said, brief hail threats
    may evolve with any stronger updraft pulses, and damaging down burst
    winds are possible.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pOmQvHQw6PSUVbJtoHL6vlEsK6dP-bocU_Q8pSzAK_BiaDlDSHJvzuv_xIobi8QlQ1iXqEvE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42519624 42879560 42949423 42809273 42409113 41889018
    41489036 41509146 41609252 41699355 41859478 41889572
    41999618 42519624=20



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