• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 17:58:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251758
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251757=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1091
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Missouri...southern
    Illinois....southern Indiana and adjacent portions of Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251757Z - 252000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may gradually
    strengthen and organize this afternoon, eventually posing some risk
    for localized potentially damaging wind gusts by 3-5 PM CDT. Due to
    the apparent marginal nature of the severe weather threat, the need
    for a watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A general intensification of thunderstorm development
    has been evident along slowly eastward advancing convective outflow,
    west of Mount Vernon, IL into areas southwest of Farmington, MO.=20
    This likely has been aided by inflow of seasonably moist air
    characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg,
    enhanced by vertical shear near a 30-50 kt westerly mid-level jet
    associated with a convectively generated perturbation now migrating
    into the Great Lakes region.

    Deep-layer mean ambient westerly flow is otherwise modest to weak
    (less than 30 kt) across the lower Ohio Valley, and, as the
    mid-level jet shifts northeastward this afternoon, it appears that
    vertical shear near the developing convection will gradually weaken.
    This may limit/slow potential for substantive further
    intensification. However, with continuing insolation contributing
    to downstream destabilization across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity,
    the evolution of a small, organizing cluster of storms appears at
    least possible. It might not be out the question that this could
    generate a sufficiently strong cold pool to support surface gusts
    approaching severe limits.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tXVSN8kPQHuB0rdU9Tm2XmH9H6P2h8Flj2pSTjT2-V7ARxvf5YBAPzvIIbTUxDbCtsDRnH1T$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39038834 39538669 39238591 38368572 37058928 37419063
    38198898 39038834=20



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