• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1090

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 16:56:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251656
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251656=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-251930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1090
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1156 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    Areas affected...Much of east central into southeastern Kansas...southwestern/west central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251656Z - 251930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected through
    1-3 PM CDT, including potential for isolated supercells, before
    activity begins to consolidate into organizing clusters, with strong
    wind gusts becoming the more prominent potential severe weather
    hazard later this afternoon and evening. Timing of a possible
    severe weather watch issuance remains unclear, but one probably will
    be needed by late afternoon, if not earlier.

    DISCUSSION...Beneath modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
    rates associated with a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, a
    moist boundary layer (including lower/mid 70s F surface dew points)
    appears characterized by large CAPE (in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg),
    south of at least a couple of remnant outflow boundaries. One,
    south/southwest of the Lake of the Ozarks into southern portions of
    the Greater Kansas City area, remains fairly prominent, with the
    influence of precipitation still in the process of diminishing. The
    other boundary, southwest of Kansas City into areas south and west
    of Great Bend, appears more subtle, but is becoming a focus for
    stronger differential surface heating.

    Meanwhile, low amplitude/weak mid-level troughing, with smaller
    scale perturbations, is in the process of overspreading the central
    Great Plains. This appears to have provided support for ongoing
    isolated thunderstorm development across north central Oklahoma,
    with at least attempts at new initiation northeast of Hutchinson and
    Wichita, closer to the western outflow boundary.

    While spread exists among the various model output concerning
    convective evolution, there does appear a consistent signal that a
    more substantive increase in thunderstorm development is possible as
    18-20Z. It seems most likely that this will be focused along and
    just to the cool side of the outflow boundaries, aided by lift
    associated with warm advection, and where deep-layer shear is
    strongest beneath 25-30+ kt west-southwesterly deep layer mean
    ambient flow. Gradually, the surface boundary intersection near/
    south of the Kansas City area may become one focus for consolidating thunderstorm development later this afternoon.

    Initial storm development may include isolated supercells posing a
    risk for severe hail, with perhaps some potential for a tornado,
    particularly where low-level shear appears more favorable along the
    outflow boundary south/southeast of Kansas City. However, strong
    wind gusts associated with downbursts and strengthening surface cold
    pools will become the more prominent severe hazard as convection
    grows upscale later this afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tgNcIHs9Oeme7uILtbgUkskH0m4GH4YV0ny2pt4DV7q74S6Do2kXMC5UA0cgKgdAVNYofKy0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39309544 39189447 38419267 37249310 37689510 37449710
    38279766 38849707 39139602 39309544=20



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