• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1086

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 01:34:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250134
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250133=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1086
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0833 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...central Missouri and eastern kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...311...

    Valid 250133Z - 250300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 311 continues.

    SUMMARY...The cluster of severe storms over northern Missouri and
    eastern Kansas will move southeastward this evening with a threat
    for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. A replacement
    severe thunderstorm watch for WW309 and ww311 will be coordinated
    shortly.

    DISCUSSION...0115z radar observation showed a compact MCS across
    portion of eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Latest echo top
    estimations from GOES 16 and MRMS show several towers in the core of
    the MCS with tops exceeding 60k feet. Regional soundings and SPC
    mesoanalysis indicate a deep reservoir of buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg
    of MLCAPE) exists ahead of the ongoing storms. As the cluster moves southeastward into undisturbed air over the next couple of hours,
    additional development/strengthening is expected. Deep-layer shear
    of 30-40 kts will support an organized linear storm mode with short
    bowing segments likely. Early indications of a rear inflow jet
    developing across far northwestern Missouri suggest damaging wind
    gusts (some in excess of 70 mph) are likely. Regional VWPs also
    suggest some QLCS tornado threat may evolve given large SRH 0-1 km
    of 200-300 m2/s2 and 25-35 kts of 0-3 km line normal shear. Given
    current convective trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
    coordinated to replace parts of WW309 and WW311. An additional watch
    may be needed downstream as storms progress southeastward later this
    evening.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ofXZOCQxN8T_LVQRJ1U7iqew3fQDyHkIpYC_XlSGzyUtkPaZSxiHD1WlMvgDFvJN7i5U__sT$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39889515 40429409 40599315 40539241 40469188 40229163
    39439134 38819122 38059151 37789260 37999400 38589546
    39369586 39889515=20



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