Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into
northwestern Missouri and southwest Iowa.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...310...
Valid 250029Z - 250130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 310 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
couple tornadoes remains early this evening. A transition to more of
a damaging wind threat appears likely over the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Evening radar observations showed several clusters of thunderstorms ongoing near the Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa
state lines. A cluster of HP supercells have evolved across far
northeast Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Additional discrete
development has taken place over the last 20 minutes south, near
Topeka. These rotating storms may continue to pose a risk for
tornadoes over the next couple of hours given strong low-level shear
and plentiful instability.
A transition to a more linear storm mode was observed across
southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa, north of the primary
baroclinic zone. This cluster is likely the beginning of a stronger
MCS depicted by CAM guidance to move southeast across northern and
central Missouri later this evening. Additional storm development/conglomeration appears likely near sunset ahead of the
increasing low-level jet. A tornado or two will remain possible with
the better organized line segments given strong low-level shear, but
a transition to a greater damaging wind threat will likely evolve as
cold pools strengthen and storms turn southeastward toward 01-03z.
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