• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1084

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 25 00:29:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250029=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1084
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0729 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into
    northwestern Missouri and southwest Iowa.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...310...

    Valid 250029Z - 250130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 310 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
    couple tornadoes remains early this evening. A transition to more of
    a damaging wind threat appears likely over the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Evening radar observations showed several clusters of thunderstorms ongoing near the Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa
    state lines. A cluster of HP supercells have evolved across far
    northeast Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Additional discrete
    development has taken place over the last 20 minutes south, near
    Topeka. These rotating storms may continue to pose a risk for
    tornadoes over the next couple of hours given strong low-level shear
    and plentiful instability.

    A transition to a more linear storm mode was observed across
    southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa, north of the primary
    baroclinic zone. This cluster is likely the beginning of a stronger
    MCS depicted by CAM guidance to move southeast across northern and
    central Missouri later this evening. Additional storm development/conglomeration appears likely near sunset ahead of the
    increasing low-level jet. A tornado or two will remain possible with
    the better organized line segments given strong low-level shear, but
    a transition to a greater damaging wind threat will likely evolve as
    cold pools strengthen and storms turn southeastward toward 01-03z.

    ..Lyons.. 06/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tn1UstgD2QIPMfYfOKhw14FDLwNmdh1G5ltmKOVKCLp2jE6zLVYt5iCkTmpoIOzjvcP4OA1L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39179702 39789671 40559655 40829579 40849501 40799417
    40679366 40449333 40349333 40209363 39699453 39509494
    39229587 39179702=20



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