• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1082

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 23:19:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242319=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1082
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Northern missouri and southern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 242319Z - 250015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms will be likely this evening ahead of a
    frontal boundary across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The
    main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail,
    though a tornado or two will be possible. A new weather watch is
    likely needed.

    DISCUSSION...2300z visible satellite imagery showed several new
    thunderstorms developing along and north of a frontal zone from
    northern Missouri through southern Iowa. These storms are ongoing in
    an environment characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MCLAPE and 30 to
    40 kts of effective shear. To the north of the front, low-level
    shear is substantially weaker as sampled by the DMX VWP suggesting
    more of a wind and hail threat for eastward extent. Some initial
    tornado threat may also exists across portions of northwestern
    Missouri with supercells upstream over eastern Kansas. Additional
    storm development along the front will likely result in upscale
    growth with a greater threat of wind and hail this evening. A new
    watch will be needed shortly.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rPJWQoQkgm8mQxgYeqYh5WFjqN56v2UJDeTKJJq3UBhJmtb-JYYW5-72kf7Wd5Uc6driqjTf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 39059495 39759525 40429532 40849495 41089368 41079273
    40669218 40059254 39489340 39089409 38949475 39059495=20



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