• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1081

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 22:30:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242230
    SPC MCD 242230=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1081
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...far northern Kansas and extreme southeastern

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...

    Valid 242230Z - 242330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues.

    SUMMARY...A few tornadoes may develop along an enhanced corridor
    near a warm front across far northern Kansas and southern Nebraska.
    A strong tornado will also be possible. Severe weather, including
    tornadoes remain possible over the rest of the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...22z objective analysis showed a well defined baroclinic
    zone stretching from Jefferson County Nebraska to Brown County
    kansas. Along this boundary, strong instability has developed with
    surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Surface pressure falls have backed
    low-level winds, supporting local strengthening of an already
    impressive low-level shear profile. With 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
    observed via the 22z Topeka sounding, storms interacting with this
    zone of enhanced vertical vorticity will likely be capable of
    producing a few tornadoes as they track east over the next 1 to 3
    hours. A strong tornado may also be possible given the favorable
    parameter space with an observed effective-layer STP of 4.=20=20

    To the south and west, increasing convergence along the stationary
    front may also support rapid severe storm development in the next
    couple of hours. Low-level shear remains strong in this region as
    well suggesting all severe hazards are possible. Recent mesoanalysis
    shows moderate surface pressure rises to the west suggesting a
    southeastward surge of the front may develop in the next couple of
    hours. Should this occur, increased convergence resulting in upscale
    growth of any initial discrete convection will likely occur. A
    greater damaging wind threat may evolve over this region later this

    ..Lyons.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qVeoPRSMMj2p_sELVzR9SHrqUxX8ViyjqRk3-NL77qXbxZBGii2ilEmG17mXO81c_WhZ4oC4$=
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    LAT...LON 40439484 39849493 39289650 39079732 38979802 39359808
    39609809 40179814 40289817 40479806 40579770 40649712
    40769635 40779578 40849486 40439484=20

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