• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1080

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 20:38:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242038
    SPC MCD 242037=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...northeast
    Wyoming...and western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242037Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms have formed in portions of
    eastern Montana to near the Black Hills and into Wyoming. These
    storms have formed in an airmass characterized by MLCAPE around 500
    J/kg and effective shear between 30 and 40 knots. This shear has
    proven sufficient for a few supercell structures in eastern Montana,
    but storm mode has been more messy from northeast Wyoming into the
    Black Hills. The limited instability should limit the overall threat
    for severe hail, but a well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse
    rates should support a threat for damaging winds with any of this
    storm activity. Currently, the strongest storms in eastern Montana
    are on the eastern periphery of the hot, well-mixed boundary layer
    and may move into a more stable airmass across western North Dakota.

    A watch is not anticipated given the isolated threat and the
    potential for storms to move east of the better instability in the
    next 1 to 2 hours.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t-MyfOnW1DhZa9d8RBmO0QvTw-TLaaT6BKSSrGlbbfdXih6yu4meJbBrd6V2Wn-D1ty7QPJs$=
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    LAT...LON 47940897 48990654 48480483 44910355 43930315 43530397
    43410558 43380593 43640606 44740612 45840610 46560667
    47170816 47310860 47430885 47940897=20

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