• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1079

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 20:14:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242014
    SPC MCD 242014=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1079
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242014Z - 242145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible
    through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...A dryline extends from southwest Kansas, across the
    Oklahoma Panhandle, and into the Texas Panhandle. Showers and weak thunderstorms have developed along the dryline near Amarillo in the
    past 30 minutes, likely aided by weak ascent ahead of an approaching
    mid-level shortwave trough.=20

    There is considerable uncertainty regarding storm coverage/intensity
    in this region. Convergence is mostly weak along the dryline and SPC mesoanalysis suggests the environment is still mostly capped in the
    region. Therefore, it is unclear whether strong/sustained convection
    will be possible. However, if strong updrafts form, there will be a
    threat of damaging winds given the very steep lapse rates and
    well-mixed airmass. A watch may be needed if more widespread storm
    development occurs or appears imminent.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rZXSuKWjAzG-vGJ8A_uGI2IXz4bTMBb7WLHni7B5aiCU--8ME0M-xttSUrCochOscAcShsVG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35140235 35440223 35910186 37060113 37680082 37930018
    37579990 37039979 36250009 35420079 34900146 35000214

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