Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into far northwest Kansas.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 241949Z - 242145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms which initially formed on the Front Range have
since moved off into the Plains. Buoyancy is still quite weak in
this region, but continues to increase as the boundary layer warms
and moistens in upslope flow across eastern Colorado. Expect these
storms to persist eastward and eventually become severe as they
encounter a more unstable airmass and better moisture. This process
may be gradual, but once storms can strengthen, strong supercells
will be possible given 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and
increasing instability. Storms will likely grow upscale into the
evening and may pose an increasing wind damage threat as this
A severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated eventually for this
activity, but convective trends will need to be monitored to
correctly assess when a watch is appropriate.
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