• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1077

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 19:49:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241949
    SPC MCD 241949=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1077
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into far northwest Kansas.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241949Z - 242145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity expected.

    DISCUSSION...Storms which initially formed on the Front Range have
    since moved off into the Plains. Buoyancy is still quite weak in
    this region, but continues to increase as the boundary layer warms
    and moistens in upslope flow across eastern Colorado. Expect these
    storms to persist eastward and eventually become severe as they
    encounter a more unstable airmass and better moisture. This process
    may be gradual, but once storms can strengthen, strong supercells
    will be possible given 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and
    increasing instability. Storms will likely grow upscale into the
    evening and may pose an increasing wind damage threat as this

    A severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated eventually for this
    activity, but convective trends will need to be monitored to
    correctly assess when a watch is appropriate.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pCQWE5xzLOhc1qagMaD5zC4UbDPs2nhgDAAioi8ubZxppKJNSiUdqahRSHHR1h4lXJvXuZcS$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39570407 39950375 40060244 40120161 40010097 39880087
    39190078 38710125 38520186 38630342 39100396 39570407=20

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