• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1076

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 19:46:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241946
    SPC MCD 241945=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1076
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 241945Z - 242215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely this afternoon for much of this

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a capped cumulus field
    across east-central KS. A few storms have recently developed over
    eastern KS on the north side of a modifying outflow boundary draped
    from southeast KS arcing northwest into northeast KS. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s across northeast KS,
    whereas persistent cloud cover over west-central MO in wake of an
    earlier MCS, has limited heating with temperatures only in the
    mid-upper 70s.

    The Topeka, KS 2pm raob shows a supercell wind profile with a
    capped, warm/moist boundary layer. Comparing the observed Topeka
    raob versus the 1-hr 18z run of the RAP valid at 19z, showed a
    slightly warmer and drier boundary layer (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean
    mixing ratio vs. 18.6 g/kg). Using an internal dynamics method
    (Bunkers) motion estimate, around 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH was noted
    both in the observed raob and the Topeka 88D VAD data.

    Current forecast thinking is for convective initiation to prefer the
    synoptic wind shift over southern NE late this afternoon. Isolated
    storms could develop farther south over northeast KS but uncertainty
    is high for this scenario. Eventually scattered thunderstorms will
    probably develop over the lower MO Valley during the evening. A
    supercell threat with associated hazards will probably transition to
    an high-precipitation supercell and later a squall line/bowing
    segment evolution.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uxYCnUQS_mTSe_G90cdLz0Jgd-2WhW7TmlOptscihreLoWK6AyhyohbJPIMzegNcxNsBKFAg$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40539675 40249734 39729743 38969632 38789560 38949500
    39329489 40349590 40539675=20

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