• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1075

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 19:12:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241911=20
    MTZ000-242115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1075
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest Montana into west-central
    Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241911Z - 242115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible through the
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has destabilized in a region
    extending from near Glacier National Park southeastward to near
    Great Falls. A few stronger updrafts have started to show more
    lightning within the past 30 minutes. Expect storm coverage to
    increase as the compact mid-level shortwave trough drops south out
    of Canada. In addition, as the boundary layer continues to warm,
    expect MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg. The KTFX VWP shows
    around 30 knots of effective shear. This shear combined with the
    weak to moderate instability, should be sufficient for organized
    updrafts, with some weak supercells possible. Isolated severe hail
    and a severe wind gust or two will be possible. Relatively weak
    instability, less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 6km, and
    limited coverage of strong to severe storms will likely preclude the
    need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q4K7keaOIshCkj4n4LRves25QyfEkJmYjygzQEHvbKRcIpvyqrsj34aQuI8uFe19W4FC0LDF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 49141390 49091470 48161418 46921251 46811194 46771173
    47001112 47651099 49051212 49031281 49141390=20



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