• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1073

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 06:37:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240637
    SPC MCD 240636=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1073
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Far Northeast Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

    Valid 240636Z - 240830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307

    SUMMARY...A potential for wind damage, isolated large hail and a
    brief tornado will likely continue for several more hours. As the
    MCS in northeast Nebraska moves southeastward toward the edge of
    weather watch 307, a new watch will need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Omaha
    shows a well-developed bowing line segment located in northeast
    Nebraska. A pronounced surface high-low couplet is evident behind
    the bowing segment. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are
    generally in the lower 70s F, which is contributing to strong
    instability. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of MLCAPE between 4000
    and 4500 J/Kg. In addition, the Omaha WSR-88D VWP shows strong
    directional shear in the low-levels with some speed shear in the mid
    to upper levels. This wind profile along with a strong rear inflow
    jet will continue support the bowing line segment as it moves
    quickly southeastward across eastern Nebraska over the next couple
    of hours. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge with
    wind gusts above 70 knots possible. Recently, the BVN observing site
    reported a wind gust at 73 knots. Large hail and a brief tornado
    will also be possible with the more intense rotating cells embedded
    in the line. The line is expected to exit weather watch 307 by 09Z.
    As it approaches the edge of the watch, a new watch will need to be
    considered further downstream.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pdSvxzGS3tLCNSeRTpOMlSAAlmev9NSeHSppI4ghz0LIssV9xh6txVzq17iXo2EMoqFGpeTt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41569496 41919625 42079740 41919794 41539859 41219852
    40639779 40129703 39559597 39349525 39329462 39849402
    40379381 40849411 41569496=20

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