Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Far Northeast Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Southwest Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...
Valid 240636Z - 240830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
SUMMARY...A potential for wind damage, isolated large hail and a
brief tornado will likely continue for several more hours. As the
MCS in northeast Nebraska moves southeastward toward the edge of
weather watch 307, a new watch will need to be considered.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Omaha
shows a well-developed bowing line segment located in northeast
Nebraska. A pronounced surface high-low couplet is evident behind
the bowing segment. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are
generally in the lower 70s F, which is contributing to strong
instability. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of MLCAPE between 4000
and 4500 J/Kg. In addition, the Omaha WSR-88D VWP shows strong
directional shear in the low-levels with some speed shear in the mid
to upper levels. This wind profile along with a strong rear inflow
jet will continue support the bowing line segment as it moves
quickly southeastward across eastern Nebraska over the next couple
of hours. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge with
wind gusts above 70 knots possible. Recently, the BVN observing site
reported a wind gust at 73 knots. Large hail and a brief tornado
will also be possible with the more intense rotating cells embedded
in the line. The line is expected to exit weather watch 307 by 09Z.
As it approaches the edge of the watch, a new watch will need to be
considered further downstream.
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