• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1072

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 03:13:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240312
    SPC MCD 240312=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1072
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1012 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

    Valid 240312Z - 240445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306

    SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across portions of Nebraska,
    and should continue for several hours. New WW issuance is likely
    across portions of central and eastern Nebraska, given the scheduled
    24/04Z expiration of WW 306.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a pair of severe storms exiting
    Keya Paha County, and moving into Brown/Rock/Holt counties. The
    stronger/lead supercell has begun a decided east-southeastward
    advance, and this trend should continue over the next few hours as
    the developing low-level jet begins to veer gradually more
    southwesterly. With steep lapse rates aloft available to support
    continued vigorous updrafts, and associated risk for large hail,
    severe risk is forecast to continue across areas currently within
    eastern portions of WW 306 as well as areas to the east and
    southeast -- across eastern Nebraska.=20=20

    Additionally, some upscale/linear growth is still anticipated, which
    would suggest potential for an uptick in damaging wind potential.=20
    HRRR runs continue to suggest such linear evolution, and given the
    two observed/merging outflow boundaries across north-central
    Nebraska -- one moving eastward (in conjunction with Cherry County
    convection) and the other (emanating from the ongoing severe storms
    farther east) shifting southward -- this would seem to remain a
    reasonable expectation.

    Given this ongoing/anticipated potential, a new WW will likely be
    issued, prior to the expiration of WW 306, covering portions of
    central and eastern Nebraska.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qQB7cg3xtlSAsf1J0tXAnU305YqCIuyP0tBRKVeZtZG0Lb0DdgHc0I1IO8DZbpyIHkebSLwJ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42380017 42809988 43009887 42779705 42249585 41399521
    40629571 40609748 40879923 41220011 42380017=20

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