• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1071

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 24 01:11:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240110
    SPC MCD 240110=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1071
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0810 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Areas affected...parts of central and eastern
    Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota...and far western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

    Valid 240110Z - 240245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306

    SUMMARY...Storms increasing in coverage/intensity -- likely in
    response to the developing low-level jet -- suggest increasing
    severe potential over the next couple of hours. A new WW remains
    likely to be needed east of ongoing activity.

    DISCUSSION...After a brief decreasing trend in ongoing convection,
    storms have begun to increase in both coverage and intensity once
    again -- mainly across north-central Nebraska and into south-central
    and southeastern South Dakota. The convective uptick is apparently
    in response to increasing QG forcing, as a subtle feature aloft
    shifts into the Plains, along with associated/accompanying low-level
    jet increase. While low-level capping hindered more widespread
    diurnal surface-based activity, continued increases in slightly
    elevated but robust convection are expected. As convection shifts eastward/southeastward with time, a new WW east of WW 306 remains a
    likelihood this evening.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sn0R7gtzxJTgoede9bqrX4odh8MBfFrjnQ6fibxI7ATLW2IZ4SDCQRuHSwKsomhNZomF69sN$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41479987 42870055 43549929 43679875 43729817 43469656
    42499560 41779571 41509690 41309875 41479987=20

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