• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1069

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 23 22:34:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232233
    SPC MCD 232233=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Areas affected...South Central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232233Z - 240030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a hail/wind risk this
    evening, but the overall threat will remain spatially limited. A
    watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A single thunderstorm has developed over south-central
    MT over the past 30-45 minutes within a broad cluster of agitated
    cumulus. This storm has been slow to mature, owing mainly to weak
    instability (generally near 500 J/kg per RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis estimates). However, nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk
    shear was recently sampled from the KBLX VWP, which matches well
    with mesoanalysis estimates of around 40-50 knots of effective bulk
    shear. The favorable deep shear coupled with a nearly
    uni-directional wind profile may compensate for the limited
    instability and support some storm organization. A severe hail
    threat is possible with any storm that can manage to mature, and
    steep low-level lapse rates near 9 C/km will support strong storm
    outflow and a damaging wind risk. GOES visible imagery shows several
    clusters of deepening cumulus, but weak forcing for ascent will
    likely result in isolated storm coverage. Given the low potential
    for a widespread severe threat a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 06/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t5hoy7R7e-jGtublQvzqawOYukBwotoZ4YfLInbtyIpui2dPvCVD3BTTe1budQp7Sk4fswY1$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45591020 46041020 46700968 46920894 46900815 46490704
    45610593 45280591 45060626 44980728 45230948 45591020=20

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