• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1068

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 23 22:17:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232216
    SPC MCD 232216=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1068
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232216Z - 232345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the cold front may pose a
    risk for isolated damaging winds early this evening. A greater
    threat may evolve with additional storm development near sunset. A
    watch is possible, but uncertainty remains high on the magnitude of
    the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite and radar imagery showed
    thunderstorm development was increasing in vigor across portions of
    North Dakota and Minnesota. These storms have developed along and
    ahead of a cold front analyzed from southern Manitoba, through
    northeast North Dakota, and northwest Minnesota. Weak buoyancy has
    developed along the front with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE observed
    from SPC mesoanalysis. 35-45 kts of 0-6km shear, sampled from
    regional VWPs, will support an organized severe risk in the form of
    supercells and short line segments. As the front surges southward, thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts given steep
    low-level lapse rates.

    To the east across north-central Minnesota, a more stable airmass is
    in place where deeper mixing has lowered surface dewpoints into the
    upper 40s and low 50s F. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the severe
    threat remains high as storms will likely weaken as they encounter
    lower buoyancy in this region. Some destabilization is possible
    later this evening as deeper surface moisture with dewpoints in the
    low 60s F is advected into the area ahead of the low-level jet. With
    the resurgence of low-level moisture, some CAM guidance suggests
    additional storms may form and grow upscale with the potential for
    damaging wind gusts into the overnight hours. With this uncertainty
    in mind, convective trends are being monitored for a possible
    weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v8w-PK9HliaGzwiLUg6gKvxPoj5DoxEOrjT9Da4u8OBhNuO7TLsZ9AwroxD7StIZ5UiV3d8k$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 49029510 48619469 48159436 47799436 47249483 46879574
    46769665 47059709 47249754 47619803 48569728 48979664
    49059643 49029510=20

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