• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1067

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 23 20:51:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232051=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-232245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1067
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and
    north-central Nebraska.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232051Z - 232245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage and intensity expected into the
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...A few towers have started to develop in the well-mixed
    air in the Nebraska Panhandle where temperatures are over 100
    degrees and inhibition is eroded according to SPC mesoanalysis.
    MLCAPE is only around 500 J/kg in this region and thus, storms are
    expected to strengthen gradually. However, as this activity moves
    eastward and as the upper trough advances east toward the better
    instability, storm intensity/coverage is expected to increase. In
    addition, shear is relatively weak where early development has
    begun, but it is stronger across central and eastern Nebraska. This
    should also aid in storm intensity/organization as activity moves
    east. Additionally, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen
    substantially during the evening hours which should provide
    additional forcing for storm development.=20

    At some point during this evening, a severe thunderstorm watch will
    likely be needed, especially as storms organize into
    supercells/bowing segments. However, the timing of this transition
    remains unclear and thus storm trends will be monitored over the
    next few hours.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uz7OmRzouiahf798QzsItoA-4VaQKTMo0zPOvYZUdcjjv3MbreAC8ll9dZs7az_1u5S7DMId$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42280331 42910169 42949956 42369904 41529924 41060000
    41040120 40990238 41050333 41480389 42280331=20



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