• DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 2

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 23 17:58:03 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 231757
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 231756

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
    OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST....

    CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRID

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into
    tonight across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
    Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats.

    ...NE and vicinity...
    Morning water vapor loop shows an upper ridge over the central High
    Plains region. Model guidance indicates that midlevel heights will
    continue to rise across this area through mid-afternoon, until a
    weak shortwave trough over WY/CO tops the ridge and begins to move
    into western NE. This will be coincident with peak heating and
    scattered thunderstorm development. These storms will likely become
    severe by early evening and track across much of NE through the
    night. Convection is expected to grow upscale during this period,
    with a fast-moving bowing complex capable of damaging winds.
    Therefore, have added a small ENH for this threat.

    ...Northern MN/WI...
    A strong shortwave trough is digging southeastward across
    Saskatchewan toward the northern Plains. The associated surface
    cold front will sweep into ND/MN this evening, where scattered
    thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will track
    southeastward across northern MN through the evening, and into
    northern WI overnight. Low-level moisture will be slowly recovering
    in this region, with the greatest moisture/CAPE values remaining
    south of the SLGT risk area. Nevertheless, a few intense cells will
    be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds.

    ...Southern MT into northeast WY...
    Strong heating is occurring today across southern MT into northeast
    WY, where dewpoints are in the 40s and afternoon MLCAPE values are
    forecast to approach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings indicate a
    deeply mixed boundary layer, along with relatively strong westerly
    flow aloft. This may result in a few thunderstorms capable of
    gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening across the
    region.

    ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/23/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 18:20:50 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 081820
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 081819

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0119 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA...

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
    NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE LOWER
    OHIO VALLEY...

    AMENDED FOR NORTHEAST STATES

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and
    damaging winds are expected across parts of the northern Great
    Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few brief tornadoes
    are possible across eastern North Carolina to southeast Virginia
    through afternoon/early evening. Other severe storms are possible
    across the Ohio Valley to Northeast States.

    ...Eastern Montana/Dakotas...
    A shortwave trough near the MT/Alberta border will progress east
    then southeast into the Dakotas through tonight. Attendant surface
    cyclone should gradually track east-southeast across northeast MT
    through this afternoon. A lee trough will become established to the
    south of this low near the MT/WY/Dakotas border longitude, while a
    slow-moving warm front arcs from western ND to a secondary
    front/trough intersection near the south-central SD/north-central NE
    border.

    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface cyclone/trough/front intersection across far eastern MT and western ND/northwest SD amid strong boundary-layer heating west of the
    trough. A plume of moderate buoyancy given rather steep mid-level
    lapse rates amid a rather elongated hodograph will foster discrete
    splitting supercells. This setup appears favorable for very large
    hail in the first few hours of convective evolution. Uncertainty
    becomes greater with time and southern extent owing to widespread
    pronounced MLCIN across much of SD into NE.

    A separate corridor of more probable elevated thunderstorm
    development is anticipated over the Mid-MO Valley near the nose of
    the low-level jet where parcels can become saturated atop the
    low-level inversion. This corridor should have a threat for isolated
    severe hail overnight.

    ...Eastern NC/southeast VA to the Mid-Atlantic Coast...
    As TC Elsa continues northeastward, a moist environment and strong
    low-level winds on the periphery of Elsa will remain favorable for
    tornadoes across eastern NC into southeast VA. The tornado threat
    will likely remain marginal/conditional this evening into tonight as
    Elsa tracks along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

    ...Northeast States...
    Clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing at midday across the
    region, particularly across far southeast New York into western New
    England. More considerable cloud cover is also generally prevalent
    across the region as compared to prior days. More appreciable
    destabilization will tend to remain confined to the Chesapeake/DE
    Bays towards the New York City tri-state area, where some cloud
    breaks are noted within morning visible satellite imagery. Although
    the degree of destabilization is a bit uncertain, isolated severe
    thunderstorms will be possible across the region with thunderstorm
    wind damage as the primary severe risk. Areas such as northeast
    PA/northern NJ into southern NY/NYC Metro and southern New England
    will continue to be reevaluated and monitored for a somewhat greater
    severe risk later today, which could include potential for some
    transient supercells.

    ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase this afternoon
    along/ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Mid-level lapse
    rates are not overly steep, but ample moisture and steepening
    low-level lapse rates coincident with 25-30 kt effective shear will
    support some semi-organized/sustained storms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Isolated damaging winds are the primary concern.
    Portions of southern Indiana/northern Kentucky into southwest Ohio
    have been upgraded for a what appears to be a more probable corridor
    of storms capable of wind damage.

    ...Middle Texas Gulf Coast...
    A belt of enhanced low-level southeasterly winds near a weak
    mid-level low may prove adequate for a brief tornado or two today
    and tonight. This risk should remain confined to immediate coastal
    areas.

    ..Guyer/Lyons.. 07/08/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 13:40:20 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 311340
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 311338

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0838 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
    AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS EASTERN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE AND THE
    MID-ATLANTIC...

    CORRECTED AGAIN FOR TSTM LINE IN THE CAROLINAS

    ...SUMMARY...
    A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from eastern Alabama
    into Georgia with the remnants of tropical cyclone Ida. A few
    storms with damaging winds may also occur across parts of the
    Mid-Atlantic.

    ...AL/GA today with remnants of tropical cyclone Ida...
    The remnants of Ida will move east-northeastward from northwest AL
    this morning to southeast TN by this evening, as a trailing
    confluence zone likewise translates eastward from AL to GA. The
    belt of strongest low-level flow (near 50 kt) and low-level shear
    (effective SRH up to 300 m2/s2) is coincident with this confluence
    band. Some modest diurnal destabilization is expected the first
    half of the day in cloud breaks along and east of the confluence
    zone, which suggests that some increase in the threat for supercells
    with a couple of tornadoes is probable by late morning into early
    afternoon. The threat may persist through the afternoon, but then
    should decrease by late evening as the remaining belt of stronger
    flow/shear is no longer in phase with sufficient surface-based
    buoyancy.

    ...Northern VA to the Delmarva this afternoon/evening...
    Surface heating will be strongest the first half of the day, prior
    to the arrival of the thicker high clouds from the remnants of Ida.
    At the surface, a weak front sagging southward from PA toward
    northern VA will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this
    afternoon into this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000
    J/kg) is expected in the warm sector as surface temperatures warm
    into the 80s with dewpoints at or above 70 F. Though midlevel lapse
    rates will be poor in the moisture plume aloft emanating from Ida,
    low-level lapse rates will be relatively steep with daytime heating,
    and there will be an increase in the 700-500 mb flow into the 40-50
    kt range this afternoon. These factors will support a threat for
    damaging winds with the stronger cells/clusters this afternoon into
    this evening.

    ...Northeast KS into western/central MO later today...
    The remnants of overnight convection are moving southeastward across
    northwest MO and southeast NE, with the composite outflow a little
    to the south and west of the ongoing storms. Isolated strong-severe
    outflow gusts may occur this morning with the southeast NE storms
    prior to weakening, and then any additional storm development will
    tend to focus along the remnant outflow and any lingering MCVs from
    the morning storms. On the larger scale, forcing for ascent will be
    rather nebulous today beyond the mesoscale influences of the morning convection, so confidence is somewhat low in later storm
    development/evolution. Thus, will maintain low wind/hail
    probabilities to reflect the conditional threats in an environment
    with moderately large buoyancy and effective bulk shear near 25 kt.

    ..Thompson/Broyles.. 08/31/2021

    $$


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