• Pacific-EN: I95E Formatio

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 23 13:54:00 2021
    WTPN21 PHNC 231430
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 94.4W TO 14.8N 100.2W
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 11.8N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES
    THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE
    SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A
    231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG
    THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
    FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
    (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT SOURCE
    SITUATED OVERHEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
    CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
    DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
    BY 241430Z.
    //
    NNNN
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 24 15:24:00 2021
    WTPN21 PHNC 241430
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231421Z JUN 21//
    AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 231430)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 98.1W TO 15.6N 103.0W
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 13.3N 98.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
    OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT
    WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
    MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
    29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
    INVEST 95E WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    251430Z.
    //
    NNNN
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