• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1066

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 23 02:52:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230251=20
    NEZ000-230345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1066
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0951 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230251Z - 230345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Lingering strong/severe storms may pose an isolated risk
    for severe hail over the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...North of the previous severe convection across
    southeastern Nebraska, two elevated supercells have recently evolved
    in the warm advection regime across York, Polk, and Butler Counties.
    An uptick in lightning and radar reflectivity over the last 20
    minutes suggests these storms may strengthen temporarily over the
    next hour. This redevelopment is likely a result of increased
    forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet. SPC
    mesoanalysis indicates these storms are ongoing near the
    southeastern edge of a plume of 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Vertical
    shear profiles remain supportive of supercells with 40 kts of
    effective shear observed by the 00z OAX sounding. The severe risk
    with these storms will likely be short lived as they continue to
    move south into an increasingly stable airmass. Over the next hour
    or two, isolated severe hail will remain possible before storms
    permanently weaken below severe limits.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tYBXNKZjgKGkHLEvGBHe4LMK-D8FWqY2duCwvguw6qcIFBbH3UFwNMYcqfrmTolLxW-MVgmt$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 40029761 40059799 40579809 40959812 41279811 41429786
    41489737 41129701 40309661 40089668 40029722 40029761=20



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