• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1065

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 23:52:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222352
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222351=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1065
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0651 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305...

    Valid 222351Z - 230045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts will remain likely with the
    stronger storms across WW305 and the vicinity over the next couple
    of hours. Storm coverage and intensity should begin to decrease
    close to sunset.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells ongoing across WW305 and surrounding
    areas have produced numerous severe hail and isolated wind reports
    over the last 90 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates the strongest
    storms are ongoing in a narrow axis of 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
    stretching from northeast Nebraska into central Iowa. 45-55 kt
    effective shear values from the OAX VWP suggest the storm mode will
    likely remain supercellular as storms track southeast over the next
    2-3 hours. Given the favorable storm mode and available instability,
    severe hail and damaging wind gusts will remain likely.

    Approaching sunset, storms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
    will approach a much drier airmass near the Omaha metro. Deep mixing
    has resulted in substantially lower surface dewpoints across this
    region, severely degrading available buoyancy. As storms approach
    this region, a decrease in severe weather probabilities appears
    likely. A similar scenario is expected to unfold farther east across
    central Iowa as storms approach the eastern edge of the instability
    axis coincident with the loss of diurnal heating. Updraft strength
    should gradually diminish as nocturnal inhibition increases and
    storms move into a more hostile environment north of a stationary
    front.

    ..Lyons.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!obB5WshMAb_PTCJtsfgl_RJe22242YHgiPArCRd9RkJDXin0khcfzQiAtL4Bqb7vZb3RxGFJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41059726 41299830 41979857 42439768 42659673 42689592
    42589396 42149283 41659239 41419222 40999217 40639258
    40629382 40719505 40969618 41059726=20



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