• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1064

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 21:38:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222137=20
    NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-222330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1064
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...Far northwest Nevada into southeast Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222137Z - 222330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and hail
    threat late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The threat
    will remain isolated enough to preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...GLM data has shown several scattered lightning strikes
    across east/southeast OR over the past hour associated with
    weak/transient convection. More recently, a slight uptick in
    lightning activity and deeper convective towers within a band of
    agitated cumulus located along a trough axis are noted from
    northwest NV into far southeast OR. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
    show upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the region as well as
    40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. This environment is supportive
    of storm organization if a cell can be sustained and gradually
    mature. In general, coverage of any strong to severe storms is
    expected to be limited given the weak forcing for ascent, and
    convection should lose intensity later this evening with the loss of
    daytime heating. As such, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!teoOdSKiTRI7QkOc_N82VFX1CnDCxcbu6cU5hELZ_jOOlWI3-6yHcZsGZx2UTO-YxQOmK0z5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

    LAT...LON 41351849 41631941 42551993 43541956 44261884 44401820
    44461763 44091699 43321679 42431685 41931693 41631724
    41351849=20



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