• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1062

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 19:40:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221940
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221940=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-222145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1062
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast NM...Southeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221940Z - 222145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible for the remainder
    of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deep cumulus along and
    in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in northeast NM and far
    southeast CO. Overall buoyancy is low, with this deepening cumulus
    primarily a result of orographic effects and modest mid-level
    moisture beneath the upper ridge. The best moisture advection will
    be displaced east of the region, but some additional air mass
    destabilization is possible as a result of strong diurnal heating
    and resulting deep boundary-layer mixing. This destabilization may
    allow updrafts to persist off the higher terrain for a bit longer
    from now through the remainder of the afternoon. Once these storms
    do decay, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and the resulting negative
    buoyancy could produce a few strong gusts at the surface, much like
    what recently occurred at KLVS, producing a 61 kt gust.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p_uY8AVoeRIDkZIWyD0YaWj-aJ0L1RNGM7IknciUT7HISiOPm83qXofwoKP6DH2fYHH3ubMp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36910517 37590479 37910439 37990404 37830361 37660338
    37410325 37180319 37010318 36360340 35680376 35240434
    35090479 35230545 35640562 36910517=20



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