• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1061

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 16:59:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221658=20
    FLZ000-221900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1061
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...Northern FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221658Z - 221900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest
    storms this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a convectively enhanced
    outflow boundary moving across northern FL. This boundary is well
    ahead of the cold front, which is currently moving through central
    GA. Given the buoyancy downstream, expectation is for the ongoing
    activity to continue. Thus far, updrafts have been relatively
    short-lived, likely as a result of poor vertical shear and
    progressive nature of the outflow boundary undercutting ongoing
    storms.=20

    Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery also show the west
    coast sea-breeze, which is delineated fairly well by the 88 deg F
    isotherm. Storms have begun developing along the sea-breeze. Weakly
    sheared environment suggests a short life cycle with most updrafts.
    Even so, ample moisture exists for water loading, and a few stronger
    downdrafts are possible. Additionally, storms along the
    southward-moving outflow could merge with those developing along the
    sea breeze, augmented updrafts/downdrafts. Limited
    severe coverage is currently anticipated, but overall convective
    trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLgWCFkQ-8zolsTAIlvjr-_KahAwSwbp0QBOwodmWDoAW661U_8ccJdXDAJSFws6eOQ9mcKQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29618302 30218224 30338150 30058126 29598113 28898125
    28368179 28148269 28818258 29258285 29618302=20



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