• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 16:13:54 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1624378440-2022-3895
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 221613
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221613=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-221815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...VA Tidewater...Eastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221613Z - 221815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
    few hours. A few of these storms may become strong enough to produce
    damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is gradually expected to increase
    over the next few hours from the VA Tidewater southward through much
    of the eastern NC. In this region, large-scale forcing for ascent
    attendant to the broad upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS
    is expected to increase. This forcing for ascent will be augmented
    by low-level convergence along a eastward-progressing cold front as
    well as confluence within the warm sector. Overall buoyancy has been
    tempered by widespread cloud cover, moderated diurnal heating, and
    poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, the moist low-level environment
    will still support enough buoyancy for a few strong storms,
    especially across the VA Tidewater where vertical shear and buoyancy
    are a bit stronger.=20

    A predominantly multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with
    relatively fast storm motions (i.e. cloud layer mean wind is around
    35 kt) likely resulting in bowing line segments. Downdrafts within a
    few of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Limited
    severe coverage is currently anticipated, but overall convective
    trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vJv5RgjzEW3eshlkIZooiC3L43eElDaV6tQQwT7WvL7WIxxD-fcHVWEExrodCEqFCVqn5HPz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 37707742 37997695 38057630 37887574 37477560 36837590
    35707668 34677771 34777853 35047926 35537954 36457858
    37707742=20



    ------------=_1624378440-2022-3895
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1624378440-2022-3895--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)