• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1059

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 01:24:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220124
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220123=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-220300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1059
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0823 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of New England and the Northeast.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...303...304...

    Valid 220123Z - 220300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300, 303,
    304 continues.

    SUMMARY...Radar and satellite trends suggests ongoing convective
    line will gradually weaken over the next couple of hours with the
    loss of diurnal heating. Isolated severe wind gusts will remain
    possible with the strongest storms through 0200-0300z. A downstream
    watch is unlikely given weakening trends and stabilizing surface
    conditions.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a broad upper trough over the northern US,
    0120z observations show a loosely organized squall line stretching
    from northeastern PA through eastern NY into western VT. Infrared
    satellite trends over the last hour show cloud-top temperatures are
    slowly warming with the loss of diurnal heating. Surface obs
    indicate temperatures ahead of the ongoing storms across southern NH
    and portions of MA and CT have fallen into the 70s F, as the
    boundary layer has begun to separate. With weakening buoyancy and
    rapidly increasing inhibition, severe storm potential will diminish
    as storms track eastward. Isolated damaging wind gusts will likely
    remain possible with the strongest convective cores, particularly
    over southern NY, east of current active weather watches. However,
    widespread severe potential is rapidly decreasing. Convective trends
    will be monitored, but no downstream watches are currently planned
    owing to the limited nature of the severe threat with eastward
    extent.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vz1W6LxEHdyJMzNBSkuaoeWsEi5wZQzjp6FfpcB4ypFGXS8r-AutkF-xLC0JicBlDeCBevM5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 40937446 41677465 42507429 43297334 43407232 43257197
    42877183 42487179 42167207 41497317 40937446=20



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