• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1058

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 22 00:17:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220017=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-220215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1058
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0717 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana and central to southern
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 220017Z - 220215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving across the lower
    Mississippi River Valley may produce sporadic wind damage, but the
    overall severe threat will remain low enough to preclude the need
    for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has revealed a gradually
    organizing line from western/central LA into western MS along and
    ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Although GOES IR imagery
    shows a few stronger updrafts within the line, no wind damage or
    strong wind reports have been noted thus far. However, the line is
    moving into a corridor of higher low-level theta-e air and better
    instability (upwards of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), which may support some intensification in the next 1-2 hours prior to the onset of gradual
    boundary layer stabilization due to the loss of daytime heating.
    Generally weak deep-layer shear is noted over the region, and a
    slightly stronger line-normal component to the mid/upper-level flow
    is allowing the LA segment of the line to propagate to the southeast
    faster than the MS segment. This section may present a better wind
    threat in the near term, though the axis of instability ahead of
    this section is rather narrow. Overall, the low probability for a
    substantial severe threat and limited spatial extent of the threat
    preclude a watch.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pzO9iZVtL2wY8wePjwlp7bXCHrdQUlNG9zmTA_B0K6-6C9dHZOZw6rPi-4baduVl8nv8-s0n$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31299298 31879246 32399205 32719102 33129024 33318967
    32968905 32508906 31888938 31309020 30979081 30939166
    30979233 31109289 31299298=20



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