• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1057

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 22:54:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212254=20
    ORZ000-220100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1057
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0554 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Southern to central Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212254Z - 220100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for hail and
    damaging winds this evening ahead of an approaching upper-level
    wave. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few lightning strikes have been noted in GLM data
    within a slowly deepening cluster of cumulus across south-central
    OR. Water vapor imagery also hints at deeper convective development
    within this cluster ahead of an approaching mid-level vorticity
    maximum. Dewpoints in the low to mid 40s and diurnal warming into
    the 90s have been sufficient to increase MUCAPE values into the
    250-500 J/kg range (with a pocket of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE noted in
    recent analyses). Although some inhibition remains in place,
    increasing lift ahead of the wave combined with orographic ascent
    should support isolated thunderstorms during the early evening
    hours. Increasing deep-layer flow will augment effective bulk shear
    values to near 30-35 knots within the zone of instability, which may
    aid in storm organization and support at least a low-end hail
    threat. Additionally, high dewpoint depressions are noted and are
    indicative of a dry, well-mixed boundary layer that may allow for
    damaging wind gusts. Given the isolated nature of this threat, a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vPUW2y6yxbohmxioekT7GFORalk8lsxZH6d5sm3u1x_rk1PiNteT9jyNeieXfq0LEEkCR0ca$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR...

    LAT...LON 42062134 42292202 43442247 44362242 44832145 44882062
    44601991 44021965 42711909 42101919 42062134=20



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