• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1056

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 22:51:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212250=20
    VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-212345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1056
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...central and eastern New York into northeast
    Pennsylvania and far northern New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...303...

    Valid 212250Z - 212345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300, 303
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms with a history of severe
    gusts and wind damage will likely continue to pose a risk for
    damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this evening. Additional
    storm development/consolidation across southern New York and
    northeast Pennsylvania will pose a risk for damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of the cold front moving across western New York,
    a line of thunderstorms near Syracuse has produced a measured severe
    gust and numerous reports of wind damage over the last hour. Radar
    data shows a well developed comma head/bowing segment developing
    east of the KTYX radar. Damaging winds will be likely with this
    cluster of thunderstorms as they track to the east northeast over
    the next couple of hours. Regional VWP data also suggests some
    mesovortex tornado threat may evolve with 0-1km SRH around 100 ms/s2
    and 0-3km line normal shear around 30 kts. Some weakening of this
    portions of the line may occur closer to the border with Vermont as
    downstream convection has resulted in some airmass modification.
    Until then, a corridor of greater severe potential will likely
    evolve.=20

    To the south across portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and
    southern New York, several clusters of developing thunderstorms were
    noted along a line from Binghamton to Allentown. Additional storm
    development should consolidate into a linear mode with the potential
    for increasing damaging wind threat as storms track through northern
    New Jersey and southern New York this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ua1GsLlIqwOX1_Qc1pcsBKn9nfCYIZbfQAWMSlzD6JPZXSVCJ8VmjqnH1tmmM6515cjXS-EP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 43997550 44157421 44087345 43797318 43207336 41947350
    41117386 40787515 40837621 40937662 41397709 42367640
    42957612 43997550=20



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