• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1055

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 22:30:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212229=20
    TXZ000-220030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1055
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest to central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212229Z - 220030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
    develop along a surface cold front this evening. Storms may
    intensify enough to pose a hail/wind threat, but the risk should be
    limited enough to preclude a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery and GLM data show agitated cumulus
    and one or two convective towers with a few lightning strikes along
    the surface cold front that is zonally draped across TX. Ahead of
    this front, temperatures have warmed into the 90s with dewpoints in
    the upper 60s and low 70s. This boundary-layer warming has helped
    erode mixed-layer inhibition, and combined with steep lapse rates
    aloft is supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Although some lingering
    inhibition remains, lift along the cold front should be sufficient
    for at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the next 1-2
    hours from central to southwest TX. Despite somewhat weak wind shear
    (20-30 knots of effective bulk shear noted in recent analyses), this thermodynamic environment is supportive of at least a brief hail
    threat with strong updraft pulses, and 8-9 C/km low-level lapse
    rates may allow for a few damaging wind gusts. Although one or two
    organized cells are possible, the coverage of the severe threat is
    generally expected to be dispersed given the residual capping and
    somewhat weak deep-layer shear. Consequently, a watch is not
    expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uq7rZgYrcs5Xbi8WPi89e8lGOKRaGZo0DkDMrna-ddkthwgNfyr-xV9BfOWhG5sCoT6F_9zj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31610233 31940051 32379897 32639729 32459678 32099657
    31619653 31089683 30749783 30409870 30200034 30050110
    29900151 29980226 29770302 30150315 30460348 31210310
    31530287 31610233=20



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