• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1054

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 22:16:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212215=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-212315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1054
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...304...

    Valid 212215Z - 212315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302, 304
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with a history of damaging wind
    gusts will track east over the next couple of hours. A continued
    threat for damaging gusts appears likely before storms move offshore
    around 00z.

    DISCUSSION...2215Z radar imagery showed a line of strong/severe
    thunderstorms and short bowing segments across portions of
    northeastern VA, MD, and southern PA. Several reports of tree and
    property damage have been received with this convective line over
    the last few hours. Recent lightning and satellite trends suggests
    some weakening of the line is occurring given lower flash rates and
    warmer cloud tops. This is likely the result of interference from
    the cooler maritime airmass near the Chesapeake Bay. However, SPC
    mesoanalysis shows a broad area of locally greater buoyancy
    (2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) exists to the east across DE and southern
    NJ. While some weakening of the ongoing line will likely continue,
    damaging wind gusts from strong outflow winds will remain a threat.
    Some resurgence may occur after storms cross into more favorable
    thermodynamic profile east of the bay across WW302 and southern
    portions of 304. This threat will continue before storms move
    offshore around 00z.

    ..Lyons.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s7HWK5LOLeX_Kc2VQ37taw4MeJUiEwfuH3Xjmxq2-csAmdXKMhl-nqF42_fAvmB0n1sI-oPB$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38607464 38567508 38667644 38897726 39617687 40337649
    40427538 40407437 40227367 39587388 39137419 38607464=20



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