• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1053

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 22:00:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212200
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212159=20
    VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-212330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1053
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0459 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212159Z - 212330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for a few
    strong to damaging gusts through about 00Z, followed by an overall
    decrease in intensities. Due to the limited duration of remaining
    threat, a WW will probably not be necessary.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms continue
    developing in the pre-frontal warm sector across eastern TN where
    the atmosphere remains moderately unstable with up to 2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE. Latest VAD wind profile from Morristown shows unidirectional
    west southwest winds from 30-40 kt in the 2 - 6 km layer but with
    weak vertical shear. This environment is supportive of multicells
    capable of producing locally strong to damaging gusts. The primary
    threat should persist another couple of hours, but storms should
    begin a weakening trend after 00Z as the boundary layer stabilizes
    with loss of diurnal heating.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r07JA_B8wWWkMwqRlfUbuXqTN7MINNfPw5ibs5Xaj9g9coZjkxst4QtFOS8YoogAHKxQp4uY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 36608169 35728332 35288409 35098511 35488513 36298398
    36948235 36608169=20



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