Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
Areas affected...Northern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 212056Z - 212230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to persist into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells are ongoing across northern
Maine. The northernmost storm is in a region of weaker instability,
but has developed a strong mesocyclone and is near the warm front.
The farther south supercell just entering Maine from Quebec appears
very healthy with a 2+ inch MRMS MESH signature and an unstable
downstream airmass. In addition, surface winds are backed in the
region given the proximity to the warm front which does increase the
chance of a tornado or two with both storms.=20
Storm coverage has been isolated thus far and and it is unclear how
it will evolve through the evening. If the greater threat remains
confined to one or two supercells, a watch may not be necessary, but
a greater storm coverage may necessitate a watch.
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