• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1051

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 20:04:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212004
    SPC MCD 212003=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1051
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Tennessee and central to eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

    Valid 212003Z - 212200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 301. Damaging wind
    gusts remain the primary hazard, but instances of severe hail will
    remain possible through the late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the surface
    cold front across KY and middle TN with only loose storm
    organization noted in regional radar imagery. In general, the
    somewhat weak and along-boundary shear is promoting numerous storm
    interactions that are limiting the severe threat to some degree.
    However, east/northeasterly 30 knot 0-3 km shear is noted in
    regional VWPs, suggesting that any north-south oriented cluster may
    become organized and pose a more robust damaging wind risk. New
    convective development is also noted ahead of the front within the
    open warm sector - primarily being driven by weak low-level theta-e
    advection and parcels reaching their convective temperatures as
    highs climb into the mid/upper 80s. This convection has primarily
    been discrete but short-lived with transient strong updrafts. Given
    favorable instability (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), this activity may
    pose a brief hail risk as well as a damaging wind risk amid
    low-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. In general, the severe
    threat should continue across northern TN and east/southeast KY for
    the next few hours.

    ..Moore.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oFFowf3dSCFi-CrvIdNNS5YecTJPBnQrLnc70SwY8WfrDoszuPaTaZeDNmlf3aNK7acxKAqb$=
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    LAT...LON 36028730 36528679 37178627 37588539 37708444 37648339
    37378309 36878289 36588335 36298427 35838482 35738520
    35738609 35758694 36028730=20

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