Mesoscale Discussion 1051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
Areas affected...Northern Tennessee and central to eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...
Valid 212003Z - 212200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 301. Damaging wind
gusts remain the primary hazard, but instances of severe hail will
remain possible through the late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the surface
cold front across KY and middle TN with only loose storm
organization noted in regional radar imagery. In general, the
somewhat weak and along-boundary shear is promoting numerous storm
interactions that are limiting the severe threat to some degree.
However, east/northeasterly 30 knot 0-3 km shear is noted in
regional VWPs, suggesting that any north-south oriented cluster may
become organized and pose a more robust damaging wind risk. New
convective development is also noted ahead of the front within the
open warm sector - primarily being driven by weak low-level theta-e
advection and parcels reaching their convective temperatures as
highs climb into the mid/upper 80s. This convection has primarily
been discrete but short-lived with transient strong updrafts. Given
favorable instability (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), this activity may
pose a brief hail risk as well as a damaging wind risk amid
low-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. In general, the severe
threat should continue across northern TN and east/southeast KY for
the next few hours.
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