• STRMDISC: TS Claudette 16

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Jun 21 15:44:00 2021
    138
    WTNT43 KNHC 211449
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
    1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water.
    However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due
    to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope
    near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the
    surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level
    circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The
    initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC
    32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of
    the center.

    Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion
    is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical
    ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the
    eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants
    will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the
    approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion
    continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
    the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus
    track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA.

    As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed
    could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough,
    which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical
    cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could
    strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind
    field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system
    weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf
    Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result,
    Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in
    about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC
    intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the
    track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

    Key Message:

    1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning
    across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
    Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
    possible.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)