• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1049

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 19:35:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211935=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-212100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1049
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Vermont and northeast New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...

    Valid 211935Z - 212100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe storm threat continues with a threat for
    damaging wind and possibly some large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Storm intensity has slowly increased across portions of
    northern New York. This process has likely been slowed by a pocket
    of drier air which advected into the region with dewpoints falling
    into the mid 60s at some sites. However, low-level moisture
    continues to advect northward and temperatures remain in the upper
    80s to low 90s across the region with MLCAPE likely remaining in the
    1500 to 2000 J/kg range into the evening.=20

    Even showers which have developed in the region have shown rotation,
    indicative of the favorable shear profile in the region. Therefore,
    once stronger updrafts develop, a few intense supercells will be
    possible with the threat for large hail and damaging winds. One such
    storm seems to have developed just north of the Canadian border
    north of the VT/NY border, possibly showing what may materialize
    farther south in the next few hours.=20

    The KCXX VWP continues to show 0-1 SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2 with
    mostly southerly winds across Vermont. Therefore, if these southerly
    surface winds can remain as storms develop and move into the area, a
    locally higher tornado threat may materialize.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sKhmz_pu3XGzJRBJZhP6URTzBZkitftA71dS_t-aAc_S7ltWC0Fw8oXSKFctlUpp2qV31ifD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42857580 45017481 45137220 44697199 44157200 43467233
    42807380 42657472 42857580=20



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